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All these comparisons were not possible without the engagement of diverse sources of information, which allowed all above comparisons to strengthen the conclusion of the importance of the environmental effects, and the importance to tease out these effects from other potential factors given climate change.

Our approach allowed us to leverage across disparate historical resources, and we believe that this method has high potential for use in other cases where disparate, long-term datasets that potentially hold important ecological information. Understanding the interplay of ecological and anthropogenic processes behind population dynamics is crucial, given the urgent need to identify and comprehend the ecosystem consequences of global climate change, and how fishing——still by far the most important factor changing marine ecosystems——interacts with it.

Our results also show the value of investigating non- or little-fished species for delineating climate outcomes from other human impacts, and of using historical resources to validate and explore dynamics over the long term. As we note for catch statistics for herring and navaga after the s in this study, misinterpretations may result if effort and the economic circumstances influencing effort are unknown.

Yet, our work also demonstrates value and potential use of other sources of long-term information to provide novel data sets and help fill gaps.

The relationships we uncovered between stickleback and temperature, an indicator of climate change, denote consequences of climate change for a small forage fish, and these will likely have larger ramifications. In the Baltic Sea, drastic growth in the stickleback population due to eutrophication precipitated cascade effects in local ecosystems due to stickleback predation on filamentous algae grazers and on the eggs of predatory fishes Bergstrom et al.

In the White Sea, stickleback population growth also has the potential to considerably alter the ecosystem by, for instance, providing food for predatory fish—navaga for example—and piscivorous birds. With continued increases in the stickleback population, likely boosted by rising temperatures under climate change given our results, one may expect growth in predatory fish, seabird, and mammal populations that depend upon these little fish for food.

Yet, where stickleback is an intermediate parasite host, increased parasite loading may partly compensate for its population growth. Stickleback predation, in turn, may decrease the abundance of its preferred zooplankton species.

It is quite likely, however, that density-dependent factors already limit further population growth. One such factor may be stickleback consumption of their own eggs on spawning grounds Demchuk et al.

Similarities between stickleback abundance in the s and at present and the decline in growth rate observed during the last decade may indicate that this is the case. The coming years will verify this hypothesis. But even if stickleback abundance does not change considerably in the future, its recent drastic growth should cause gradual changes in other ecosystem components.

The data underlying this article will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author. Lajus, D. Multidecadal fluctuations of threespine stickleback in the White Sea and their correlation with temperature. The authors thank the Marine Biological Station of St. Petersburg State University for the opportunity to conduct year-round research in the White Sea, the Karelian Research Centre for permission to work with the archives of the Gridino Research station, and the Kandalaksha State Nature Reserve for permission to work with the Chronicles of Nature.

Khaitov, P. Strelkov, and N. Semenova arranged technical opportunities to work with the Chronicles. Klein, L. Stige, K. Alexander, and two anonymous referees provided valuable suggestions and English editing of the manuscript. Frolov supplied with data on herring and navaga commercial catches from to Lajus, T.

Ivanova and M. Ivanov were supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant Abdel-Malek S. Threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus L. Nauchnye doklady vysshei shkoly. Biologicheskie nauki , 3 : 31 — 36 in Russian. Google Scholar. Voprosy ikhtiologii , 8 : — in Russian. Abesamis R. Russ G. Density-dependent spillover from a marine reserve: long-term evidence.

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Hurst T. Causes and consequences of winter mortality in fishes. Journal of Fish Biology , 71 : — Roberts D. Masson-Delmotte V. Zhai P. Tignor M. Poloczanska E. Mintenbeck K. Nicolai M. Okem A. Petzold J. Rama B. Weyer N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , ipcc. Kucheryavyy A. Yurtseva A. Homing ability and site fidelity of marine threespine stickleback on spawning grounds. The White Sea threespine stickleback population: spawning habitats, mortality, abundance. Evolutionary Ecology Research , 17 : — Karpov A.

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